Government Study Predicts Two-Thirds of Polar Bears Could Perish

A series of new studies by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) forecast that two thirds of the world’s Polar bears will disappear by the middle of this century. While alarming, the studies’ conclusions – which predict the loss of all Polar bears found in Alaska - are nonetheless considered conservative since they are based on moderate projections that estimate ice-loss in response to future climate warming scenarios.

The collaborative research effort, led by USGS, included scientists from other US and Canadian government agencies as well as universities and the private sector. The team divided the study area into four different ‘ecoregions’ for their analysis (see map below). They estimate that polar bears within the pink (Divergent ice) and green (Seasonal Ice) ecoregions will be extinct by 2050 and that the bears in the light blue areas (Convergent ice) will be gone by 2075, leaving only a small grouping of bears in the Canadian arctic (the yellow area) by century's end.

The studies, released September 7th, were requested by the Secretary of the Interior, Dirk Kempthorne, to aid the US Fish and Wildlife Service in assessing whether the Polar bears should be added to the Endangered Species Act. NRDC and other organizations filed a petition requesting endangered species protection for the Polar bear last year and a final decision on whether the Polar bears will receive federal protection is expected in January.

Although the results of the USGS studies paint a bleak picture for the Polar bears, NRDC believes the news is a stronger call to action. While it’s true that the climate system has a lot of inertia, meaning that some additional warming and sea ice retreat is inevitable, the likelihood of an ice-free Arctic—and polar bear extinction—depends heavily on how much more heat-trapping pollution is put in to the atmosphere. The USGS projections, which explore a range of emission scenarios, assume no change to current regulations. At the same time, they demonstrate the least amount of ice loss with the lowest emission levels. This means the Polar bears still have a fighting chance if we take decisive action to cut global warming pollution in time to prevent carbon dioxide from reaching the levels considered by USGS.